NBA Free Agency Diary: Today’s NBA Superstars Won’t Stop Team-Hopping

Keep track of the chaotic NBA offseason with our Free Agency Diary.


Dear NBA Diary,

Remember when NBA players wearing different jerseys was new and novel? When you’d experiment with weird trades in NBA Live’s franchise mode, knowing that nothing so crazy as, I don’t know, Russell Westbrook in a Houston Rockets uniform or Kevin Durant as a Brooklyn Net would actually happen? And when the first wave of truly wild moves — such as LeBron James joining the Miami Heat in 2010 — did actually happen, do you remember the way our minds were blown as we imagined superstar combinations we’d never seen before?

All of that is old news in 2019, now that we’ve seen countless Big Threes and even Hamptons Fives. If James signing to play with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh was groundbreaking and Durant joining the Golden State Warriors still managed to shock, we’re pretty desensitized to huge names heading for new places by now. Yes, Kawhi Leonard becoming an L.A. Clipper was a big story, but mostly because of what it means for next season’s championship chase — not because the idea of him in a different jersey was all that tough to comprehend. (We’d just finished watching the longtime Spur win a title in a Toronto Raptors jersey anyway.)

This is the era of player empowerment, as it’s recently been designated, and NBA players are placing a major premium on freedom of movement and choice of teammates. You can see this in the sheer number of different franchises for which top players suit up, relative to in the past. From the 1980s through the 2000s, a top 25 NBA player of a given decade (according to consensus Wins Created)1 played for 1.99 teams during a 10-year span, on average. During the 2010s, however, the average top 25 player has played for 2.76 teams. And that bump in franchises played for holds across most of the ranking slots from No. 1 to No. 25, if we plot them out in a chart:

Not every player has taken quite the same path as Dwight Howard, who ranks No. 18 in the 2010s and is now on his seventh team of the decade after being traded away from the Wizards this summer. But James, for instance, has played for three teams this decade — the Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Lakers — while only one No. 1 player of the previous three decades — Kevin Garnett, who starred for the Minnesota Timberwolves and Boston Celtics during the 2000s — played for more than one team. The reality of today’s league is stars hop teams far more often than their counterparts did in earlier eras, controlling their own destinies rather than letting team executives slide them around like pawns on a chessboard.

It’s a trend NBA commissioner Adam Silver seems keenly aware of — if powerless to change, particularly with regard to the many deals that appeared to be made before the league’s mandated free-agency period was set to begin.

“My sense in the room today was, especially when it comes to free agency and the rules around it, that we’ve got work to do,” Silver told reporters last week, after the league’s board of governors meetings. “And as I said, it’s still the same principles of fair balance of power and a sense that it’s a level playing field. I think that’s what teams want to know. I think they’re put in difficult situations because when they’re sitting across from a player and whether it’s conversations that are happening earlier than they should or frankly things are being discussed that don’t fall squarely within the collective bargaining agreement, it puts teams in a very difficult position because they are reading or hearing that other teams are doing other things to compete.”

Even incentives put into place to theoretically curb player movement, such as larger maximum contracts (both in guaranteed length and total money) for players re-signing with their most recent teams, have failed to stop them from packing up and leaving town. Durant, for instance, left $57 million on the table to sign with Brooklyn rather than return to Golden State. Leonard gave up at least $80 million (!!) — if not even more — relative to what he could have gotten from a supermax deal with the Spurs, and about $30 million compared with what the Raptors could have given him by signing with the Clippers.

Today’s stars, as ESPN’s Rachel Nichols perfectly put it, can’t be bought. They’ve proven that they’re willing to give up mind-boggling sums of cash in order to make their own decisions.

Is all of this good for the league? Judging from the reaction on social media or in search traffic — where the NBA got playoff-level attention during the first week of July — the game’s popularity has seldom been higher, and the craziness of this offseason has only helped. I’ve said before that, if you view the modern NBA through a player-focused lens, it makes the most sense as a gigantic real-life soap opera. The concept of franchises is just incidental to all that, merely providing structure for the individual drama.

Of course, if you are a fan of a team, it hurts to see your favorite players leave. The Raptors did everything they possibly could to retain Leonard’s services, but they reportedly had practically no chance of re-signing him even as they were winning the title. Although the players should owe no loyalty to team owners (err, “governors”) beyond the contracts they sign, from a fan’s perspective it seems to make little sense to root for any specific NBA team. Even if a team is lucky enough to acquire a superstar, it’s far from guaranteed he would stay more than a season or two in today’s climate.

But the other side of that coin is that it’s more possible than ever for downtrodden teams to land a superstar in the first place. The Nets and Clippers have spent more of their histories as laughingstocks than contenders, particularly since both were seen as the “little brothers” in their markets (behind the Knicks — LOL — and Lakers). The franchises were not traditional free-agent destinations. But as stars become more focused on setting up the right situation for themselves and the players they want to play with, even teams without a history of snagging big-name players can make themselves an attractive option. It’s a different way of doing business — but in today’s era of superstar team-hopping, it might just be the new normal.

Check out our latest NBA predictions.

NBA Free Agency Diary: The Rockets Don’t Have Superstar FOMO Anymore

Keep track of the chaotic NBA offseason with our Free Agency Diary.


Dear NBA Diary,

Time for a do-over. On Thursday morning, I wrote that the Houston Rockets would be just fine running things back with their existing core of James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela and company, despite the narrative that they were falling behind in the Western Conference’s superstar arms race.

Then Thursday night happened. Daryl Morey and the Rockets offered up what feels like the millionth earth-shattering transaction of the NBA summer by dealing Paul to the Thunder for Russell Westbrook. Just like that, Houston had created an entirely new star combo in Harden and Westbrook — and we needed a new breakdown of their full-strength CARMELO rating:

Whoaaaa, look at this Rockets team now

Projected full-strength regular-season depth chart for the 2019-20 Houston Rockets, based on CARMELO plus/minus ratings

EXPECTED MINUTES PER GAME PLAYER RATING
PLAYER PG SG SF PF C TOTAL OFF. +/- DEF. +/- TOT. +/-
James Harden 8 25 4 0 0 37 +7.4 +0.9 +8.3
Russell Westbrook 31 5 0 0 0 36 +3.5 +0.5 +3.9
Clint Capela 0 0 0 2 29 31 -0.3 +2.3 +2.0
Eric Gordon 0 3 26 0 0 29 +1.1 -1.2 -0.1
PJ Tucker 0 0 3 25 0 28 -1.2 +1.1 -0.1
Austin Rivers 9 12 5 0 0 26 +0.1 -1.3 -1.2
Gerald Green 0 0 9 8 0 17 -0.7 -1.9 -2.6
Tyson Chandler 0 0 0 0 15 15 -2.9 +2.1 -0.9
Danuel House Jr. 0 3 1 10 0 14 +0.0 -0.4 -0.5
Deyonta Davis 0 0 0 1 4 5 -1.7 +1.0 -0.7
Isaiah Hartenstein 0 0 0 2 0 2 -1.7 +1.4 -0.3
Gary Clark 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.9 -0.4 -2.3
Chris Chiozza 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.9 -1.6 -2.5
Michael Frazier 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.6 -1.3 -2.9
Trevon Duval 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2.5 -1.4 -3.9
Chris Clemons 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.7 -1.0 -1.7
Team total 240 +6.8 +1.8 +8.4
Expected record: 58-24
CARMELO team rating: 1716

In the short term, this deal improves what was already a surprisingly strong-looking Rockets roster. Houston’s CARMELO rating was 1693 (good for a 56-win projection and a 19 percent championship probability) before the trade; now, that rating is 1716, to go with 58 projected wins and a 25 percent chance of winning the title. Morey paid two first-round picks (and two pick swaps) to make those marginal gains, but in a 2019-20 season that looks wide-open, every little bit could make all the difference.

Certainly, Westbrook (age 30) is younger than Paul (34) and projects to be better over the next few seasons, according to CARMELO’s wins above replacement metric, though he is coming off a worse season in 2018-19:

There are still plenty of questions about how the members of Houston’s new star pairing will coexist with each other. And the trade feels at least in part like a deal done just so the Rockets can say they made a big offseason splash on par with the West’s other heavy hitters. But it certainly further bolsters Houston’s case as the favorite in a loaded Western Conference.

UPDATE (July 12, 2019, 2:40 p.m.): This diary entry has been updated to reflect the signing of Tyson Chandler. Houston’s Elo didn’t change.

Check out our NBA player ratings.

Where Does This Summer’s NBA Free-Agent Class Rank?

NBA fans (and general managers) have had the summer of 2019 circled on their calendars for a very long time. With names like Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler and Kyrie Irving available via free agency — plus the inevitable Anthony Davis trade having already gone down earlier in the month — the sheer amount of star power potentially swapping teams this offseason could reshape the league for years to come.

But is this the most star-studded free-agent summer in recent memory?

It depends on how we look at things.

To calculate the value of every player in each free-agent class since 2010 — the year LeBron James’s “Decision” kicked off our current era of free-agency mania1 — I’m combining three widely used metrics (Value Over Replacement Player, Win Shares and Estimated Wins Added) into a consensus measure of Wins Created, all scaled to an 82-game season. In terms of total Wins Created over the previous three seasons, this year’s top free agents are Durant (39.9), Butler (37.8) and Irving (34.0), who contribute to a three-year total of 1,354.5 Wins Created across all of the 2019 free agents.

Who are the most productive free agents of the summer?

Top 2019 NBA free agents, ranked by Wins Created* over the previous three seasons

Wins Created
Rk Player Age Old Team 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Total
1 Kevin Durant 31 GS 14.0 12.9 12.9 39.9
2 Jimmy Butler 30 PHI 17.8 11.0 9.1 37.8
3 Kyrie Irving 27 BOS 9.9 11.4 12.7 34.0
4 Kemba Walker 29 CHA 11.4 10.9 11.3 33.7
5 Kawhi Leonard 28 TOR 17.0 1.2 11.0 29.1
6 DeAndre Jordan 31 NY 12.0 8.9 7.8 28.7
7 Al Horford 33 BOS 8.2 9.8 9.4 27.4
8 Nikola Vucevic 29 ORL 6.0 6.0 14.7 26.7
9 Marc Gasol 35 TOR 10.9 6.7 8.5 26.2
10 DeMarcus Cousins 29 GS 13.8 8.4 3.1 25.3
11 Thaddeus Young 31 IND 5.9 7.0 8.7 21.6
12 Tobias Harris 27 PHI 7.4 7.1 7.2 21.6
13 Brook Lopez 31 MIL 7.2 4.2 7.8 19.2
14 Julius Randle 25 NO 4.6 6.6 6.9 18.0
15 Paul Millsap 34 DEN 8.4 2.8 6.4 17.7
16 Enes Kanter 27 POR 3.9 7.7 5.8 17.4
17 Darren Collison 32 IND 3.0 7.3 6.4 16.8
18 Trevor Ariza 34 WAS 7.1 5.7 3.6 16.4
19 Ricky Rubio 29 UTA 6.3 6.3 3.5 16.1
20 Danny Green 32 TOR 4.8 3.9 7.2 15.8

* Based on a blend of Value Over Replacement Player, Win Shares and Estimated Wins Added. Age as of Feb. 1, 2020.

Source: Basketball-Reference.com, Spotrac

Among free-agent classes since 2010, only the 2015 group — which contained James (who re-signed with the Cavaliers after initially rejoining them the previous summer), Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan (whose free-agency saga that year is worthy of its own post), Paul Millsap, Tim Duncan, Kevin Love and Leonard — ranked higher than 2019 by that metric:2

Which free-agent class had the most total production?

Best free agency classes since 2010, based on the total Wins Created* by free-agent players in the preceding three seasons

Summer Best players (by 3-year Wins Created) Overall Total WC
2015 L. James • M. Gasol • D. Jordan 1365.1
2019 K. Durant • J. Butler • K. Irving 1354.5
2013 C. Paul • D. Howard • P. Millsap 1232.1
2017 S. Curry • K. Lowry • K. Durant 1200.6
2010 L. James • D. Wade • D. Nowitzki 1187.1
2012 T. Duncan • D. Williams • G. Wallace 1181.7
2016 L. James • K. Durant • N. Batum 1169.8
2014 L. James • C. Anthony • K. Lowry 1048.0
2018 L. James • K. Durant • C. Paul 1037.7
2011 T. Duncan • N. Hilario • R. Allen 887.8

* Based on a blend of Value Over Replacement Player, Win Shares and Estimated Wins Added.

Source: Basketball-Reference.com

The 2019 class’s ranking is also hampered by Leonard’s nearly season-long absence in 2017-18, when the then-Spurs forward generated just 1.2 wins in nine games. Had Leonard played to his average over the preceding three seasons and created 14.8 wins that year, his three-year total would have been 42.7 — tops in the class, and good enough to boost 2019 to No. 1 on our class rankings over 2015. (But then again, how much else about the league would be different today if Leonard hadn’t suffered that quad injury — the management of which led to a rift with San Antonio, a trade to Toronto and ultimately an NBA championship?)

The summer of 2019 also rises up the ranks to No. 1 if we include Davis as a de facto free agent. (Yes, he went to the Lakers via trade, but Davis’s departure from New Orleans was all but assured, and he was often listed among the offseason’s biggest prizes.) When Davis’s three-year value is included among the rest of the free agents, 2019 pulls ahead of 2015 with a total haul of 1396.4 Wins Created by available players over the previous three seasons.

But strictly in terms of top free-agent talent, this year’s class isn’t quite on the same level as other years. Durant’s 39.9 Wins Created over the previous three years ranks third-lowest among leaders for the 10 years we looked at, ahead of only the 2011 and 2012 free-agent groups (both headlined by Duncan). It’s a far cry from James hitting the 2010 market with a class-high 81.8 Wins Created for the last three seasons under his belt. If we look only at the totals of the Top 10 players available, the 2010 class ranks No. 1, thanks to a ridiculously stacked set of Hall of Famers that included James, Dwyane Wade, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce, Chris Bosh and Ray Allen.

Though this year’s crop has plenty of big names, none of them are coming off performances quite as prodigious as James and Wade had in the years leading up to 2010. (Among the top five, Kemba Walker, at No. 4, comes closest to matching his counterpart from that year, Pierce; Walker generated 33.7 wins over the past three seasons, while Pierce had 33.8 from 2008 through 2010.) But the 2019 free-agent class makes up for its perhaps surprising lack of production at the top with sheer depth:

The next tier of free agents — aka the Khris Middletons and Brook Lopezes of the world — might not contain the sexiest names, but it does offer better-than-usual options to teams who strike out on the biggest free agents. And that’s also true even further down the rankings: An unusual number of players up for free agency this summer (101, to be exact) produced at least five wins over the preceding three seasons, compared with an average of 76 players per season in the nine years leading up to 2019.

Of course, the next handful of championships will still probably hinge on the destinations of Durant, Leonard, Butler and the rest of the biggest names on the list. But if this summer’s free-agent class does end up going down among the best of the decade, it should be just as much on the strength of its lesser stars as its top-line players.