NBA Free Agency Diary: The Rockets Don’t Have Superstar FOMO Anymore

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Dear NBA Diary,

Time for a do-over. On Thursday morning, I wrote that the Houston Rockets would be just fine running things back with their existing core of James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela and company, despite the narrative that they were falling behind in the Western Conference’s superstar arms race.

Then Thursday night happened. Daryl Morey and the Rockets offered up what feels like the millionth earth-shattering transaction of the NBA summer by dealing Paul to the Thunder for Russell Westbrook. Just like that, Houston had created an entirely new star combo in Harden and Westbrook — and we needed a new breakdown of their full-strength CARMELO rating:

Whoaaaa, look at this Rockets team now

Projected full-strength regular-season depth chart for the 2019-20 Houston Rockets, based on CARMELO plus/minus ratings

EXPECTED MINUTES PER GAME PLAYER RATING
PLAYER PG SG SF PF C TOTAL OFF. +/- DEF. +/- TOT. +/-
James Harden 8 25 4 0 0 37 +7.4 +0.9 +8.3
Russell Westbrook 31 5 0 0 0 36 +3.5 +0.5 +3.9
Clint Capela 0 0 0 2 29 31 -0.3 +2.3 +2.0
Eric Gordon 0 3 26 0 0 29 +1.1 -1.2 -0.1
PJ Tucker 0 0 3 25 0 28 -1.2 +1.1 -0.1
Austin Rivers 9 12 5 0 0 26 +0.1 -1.3 -1.2
Gerald Green 0 0 9 8 0 17 -0.7 -1.9 -2.6
Tyson Chandler 0 0 0 0 15 15 -2.9 +2.1 -0.9
Danuel House Jr. 0 3 1 10 0 14 +0.0 -0.4 -0.5
Deyonta Davis 0 0 0 1 4 5 -1.7 +1.0 -0.7
Isaiah Hartenstein 0 0 0 2 0 2 -1.7 +1.4 -0.3
Gary Clark 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.9 -0.4 -2.3
Chris Chiozza 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.9 -1.6 -2.5
Michael Frazier 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.6 -1.3 -2.9
Trevon Duval 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2.5 -1.4 -3.9
Chris Clemons 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.7 -1.0 -1.7
Team total 240 +6.8 +1.8 +8.4
Expected record: 58-24
CARMELO team rating: 1716

In the short term, this deal improves what was already a surprisingly strong-looking Rockets roster. Houston’s CARMELO rating was 1693 (good for a 56-win projection and a 19 percent championship probability) before the trade; now, that rating is 1716, to go with 58 projected wins and a 25 percent chance of winning the title. Morey paid two first-round picks (and two pick swaps) to make those marginal gains, but in a 2019-20 season that looks wide-open, every little bit could make all the difference.

Certainly, Westbrook (age 30) is younger than Paul (34) and projects to be better over the next few seasons, according to CARMELO’s wins above replacement metric, though he is coming off a worse season in 2018-19:

There are still plenty of questions about how the members of Houston’s new star pairing will coexist with each other. And the trade feels at least in part like a deal done just so the Rockets can say they made a big offseason splash on par with the West’s other heavy hitters. But it certainly further bolsters Houston’s case as the favorite in a loaded Western Conference.

UPDATE (July 12, 2019, 2:40 p.m.): This diary entry has been updated to reflect the signing of Tyson Chandler. Houston’s Elo didn’t change.

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One Way James Harden’s Scoring Streak Is More Impressive Than Wilt’s

Houston Rockets guard James Harden has been busy this season redefining just how much offense a single player can create. As we near the NBA All-Star break, Harden has scored at least 30 points in an absurd 30 consecutive games and counting, which, according to Basketball-Reference.com, is the second-longest streak in league history. Harden’s streak trails only Wilt Chamberlain’s 65-game run from the 1961-62 season — a season in which Wilt happened to set the NBA record by scoring 50.4 points per game. The way Harden has been filling up the scoresheet, Chamberlain comes up as a frequent comparison, continually amazing for those of us who never thought we’d get to see numbers like Wilt’s in today’s game. But what might be most remarkable about Harden is the way he’s different from Chamberlain — specifically, how his one-man show has changed his team’s offense.

A big reason that Chamberlain keeps popping up is that it’s difficult to find a modern analogue for what Harden is doing. Harden currently has a usage rate of 40.2 percent, meaning he has taken a shot (or turned the ball over) on roughly two out of every five Houston plays when he’s on the court. And when he isn’t trying to score himself, Harden has also assisted on 40.3 percent of teammate baskets. The only other qualified season in NBA history to break those 40/40 thresholds belonged to Russell Westbrook in 2016-17 — and Westbrook was much less efficient that season than Harden has been this year, averaging 6.8 fewer points per 100 possessions on plays he had a hand in ending.

To get a sense of just how far Harden is pushing the boundaries of productivity, here’s a breakdown of all qualified seasons since 1976-77 by possession rate1 versus offensive efficiency. (The outermost points up and to the right are the best combinations of workload and efficiency.)

With 118.6 points produced per 100 possessions on a possession rate of 40.5 percent, Harden is currently having the greatest high-usage offensive season in modern history. From a team perspective, those numbers mean that Houston is funneling nearly half of its possessions through a player who is personally averaging nearly 2 more points per 100 possessions than the league’s most efficient team (the Warriors, at 117.0). So in theory, this should be a very good thing for his team’s scoring rate, which in turn should lead to more and more wins.

And in Harden’s case, that appears to be true. Since Harden’s streak began, he is averaging 122 points per 100 possessions with a usage rate of 42.8 percent, both numbers up from the 114 and 37.3 percent marks he had before the streak, respectively. And over the same span, Houston’s teamwide offensive efficiency has zoomed up from 111.2 points per 100 before the streak (sixth-best in the NBA) to 116.9 (second-best) ever since, with his Rockets’ on/off-court offensive efficiency split (+5.8 points per 100) staying roughly the same before the streak and after. Houston is also 21-9 over the streak, after starting the season 12-14. Of course, the recent return of former All-Star point guard Chris Paul, who missed 18 games during Harden’s streak, has buoyed the Rockets as well — but in general it’s safe to say that Harden’s tear has had a very positive effect on Houston’s efficiency and overall record.

Why is that notable, though? Isn’t that simply the logical result of having a highly efficient player dominate his team’s possessions? You might think so, but in a dynamic sport such as basketball, things are often more complicated than they may appear. And the best example of this could be Chamberlain.

Chamberlain’s career was unwittingly one of history’s most fascinating laboratories for basketball experimentation, in large part because he was the NBA’s most extreme statistical outlier ever. Wilt led the league in scoring in each of his first six seasons, with a staggering scoring average of 40.6 points per game over that span; he also led the league in field goal percentage in three of those campaigns, making 50.7 percent of his shots in total (at a time when the NBA average was around 42 percent). With such a high volume of efficient shots, you might expect that Wilt was like Harden, leading his teams to tremendously efficient offensive performances.

But you’d be wrong. Shockingly, Chamberlain’s Warriors struggled to even break league average in efficiency during his seasons with the club, despite the enormous amount of high-percentage scoring Chamberlain did by himself. It wasn’t until Chamberlain switched teams and started scoring less — passing to his teammates more — that his clubs began breaking offensive records.

To better understand the sometimes-counterintuitive effect a single scorer can have on his team’s offense, I reached out to Ben Taylor, author of the book “Thinking Basketball,” who was one of the first researchers to notice this phenomenon in Chamberlain’s numbers. “The arc of [Wilt’s] career is very, very unique,” he said. “Not only do some people consider him the best player ever precisely because of these raw stats, but he goes through many different coaches, they put him in many different situations, and specifically Alex Hannum comes along with this great idea — like, ‘Hey, Wilt, what if you just didn’t shoot that much anymore?’ — and he does this, and the team becomes incredible.”

Chamberlain’s 1965-66 and 1966-67 seasons with Philadelphia present the most fascinating test case. According to Taylor’s research, Chamberlain’s own personal scoring attempts in 1966 were much more efficient (averaging about 1.09 points per possession) than those of his teammates when they tried to score (0.94), and the 76ers had a mediocre offense with Chamberlain scoring 33.5 points per game. If anything, that makes it sound like Chamberlain should have shot the ball even more — but instead, Hannum persuaded Chamberlain to spread the ball around the following season. His teammates, basically the same cast of characters, averaged more points per attempt (1.01) on more shots per game, while Wilt himself was far more efficient (1.27 points per attempt!) when scoring “only” 24.1 points per game. The result was a championship for Philadelphia and one of history’s greatest offenses.

Chamberlain’s less-is-more experience is indicative of other one-man shows from throughout NBA history, Taylor said. “You can see it with other high-usage players in a modern setting. I think the classic examples are 1987 [Michael] Jordan, 2006 Kobe [Bryant], guys like that — they’re doing a similar thing, and again you don’t have anywhere near a top-shelf offense.”

But Harden has been able to break that mold by playing differently than other one-man offenses from the past. “Harden’s not the best example of one of these high-usage all time scorers,” Taylor said. “He’s a little weird in that he’s more like Steve Nash — he’s passing and dominating the offense to also set up teammates, and so you have a huge ‘creation’ player. … The stark difference between [Harden and Wilt] is that Wilt, when he was scoring, was more like a black hole, and Harden is just running everything.”

The idea that Harden is what Taylor called a “Scoring Nash” is eye-opening. Playing in a similar (if not exactly identical) system to the one Nash orchestrated for four years under coach Mike D’Antoni, Harden has evolved the role of distributor to include an even greater level of player choice. If one of Nash’s great strengths was drawing defensive attention as a means of setting others up for easy shots, Harden can also use the threat of the pass as a means of giving himself more space to shoot. As a result, Harden has an “offensive load” — Taylor’s metric for measuring direct involvement via scoring or passing within an offense — of 66 percent, compared with Nash’s single-season high of 51 percent under D’Antoni in 2007.

Pass-heavy initiators like Harden don’t always elevate otherwise mediocre offenses to greatness. For instance, Westbrook — who in 2017 set the NBA record for single-season usage rate (just ahead of Harden’s rate this year) — was the centerpiece of a barely average scoring attack that year, despite his record offensive load of 74 percent. But a disproportionate share of history’s greatest offenses were led by players such as Harden, Nash, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and even Golden State’s Stephen Curry — players who stretched defenses into oblivion with the interplay between their passing and scoring.

That’s why Harden’s admittedly impressive scoring streak is only one part of the puzzle that has helped vault the Rockets back near the top of the Western Conference’s contender list. By playing more like the Chamberlain of 1967 than 1962, Harden isn’t just helping the team with his own statistics — he’s also making the players around him better.

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